Stoke City vs Middlesbrough: Prediction & Preview

Form guide

Stoke City host Middlesbrough in Round 10 of the Championship with both sides near the top of the table, but in different positions. Stoke are 4th with 16 points from nine matches, while Middlesbrough are 2nd with 18 points. The home side have won five, drawn one and lost three, scoring 15 and conceding 13. Their home record is particularly solid: three wins and one defeat from four at the bet365 Stadium.

Stoke come into this game on a strong run of results, with a last-five sequence of WWWDW. Their recent league results include a 2-1 win at Bolton Wanderers, a 2-1 home win over Sheffield United, a 2-1 away win at Watford, a 1-1 draw at Cardiff City, and a 4-0 home win over Charlton Athletic.

Middlesbrough have also started well, with five wins, three draws and only one defeat from nine league matches. They have scored 17 and conceded 12, and their away record is competitive rather than dominant: one win, two draws and one loss from four away games. Their last five results read WDDWL, with a 1-0 home win over Wolverhampton Wanderers in their most recent league fixture, after draws against Birmingham City and Millwall, a 4-3 win over Norwich City, and a 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace in the League Cup.

Head-to-head

The recent head-to-head record has favoured Middlesbrough. In the last five meetings, they have won three, Stoke have won one, and one match ended level.

• 2026-01-21: Stoke City 1-2 Middlesbrough
• 2025-09-30: Middlesbrough 0-0 Stoke City
• 2025-02-25: Stoke City 1-3 Middlesbrough
• 2024-09-28: Middlesbrough 2-0 Stoke City
• 2024-08-27: Middlesbrough 0-5 Stoke City

Key factors

• Stoke’s home form is a clear strength, with three wins from four at the bet365 Stadium.
• Middlesbrough are higher in the table and have lost only once in the league so far.
• Both teams have scored consistently in the Championship, with Stoke on 15 goals and Middlesbrough on 17.
• The head-to-head trend points slightly towards Middlesbrough, but Stoke’s recent results at home make this a competitive contest.

Our prediction

This is only a prediction, not a certainty. Our model’s tip is Both teams to score at 54%. The main risk is that Middlesbrough’s away games have not always become open, and Stoke’s home record suggests they can control periods of the match.