Burnley vs Charlton Athletic: Prediction & Preview

Form guide

Burnley host Charlton Athletic in Round 10 of the Championship at Turf Moor, with both sides arriving on mixed recent runs. Burnley are 22nd in the 24-team table on 7 points from 9 matches, while Charlton are 12th on 13 points from the same number of games.

Burnley’s overall record is 1 win, 4 draws and 4 defeats, with 13 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home, they are still looking for their first league win of the season, having drawn 3 and lost 1 of their 4 matches at Turf Moor. Their last five league results are WDLDL, and the most recent was a 4-0 away win at Watford.

Charlton have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their away record stands at 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses. In their last five league matches they have gone DLDDL, including a 1-1 home draw with Bristol City in their most recent outing.

Head-to-head

The recent head-to-head record clearly favours Burnley. In the last five meetings between these clubs, Burnley won all five, scoring 14 goals and conceding none.

• Charlton Athletic 0-3 Burnley
• Burnley 4-0 Charlton Athletic
• Charlton Athletic 0-3 Burnley
• Burnley 3-0 Charlton Athletic
• Charlton Athletic 0-1 Burnley

Key factors

Burnley’s home form is the main concern, as they have not won at Turf Moor in the league yet. However, their latest result was encouraging, and their overall goal return of 13 in 9 matches is stronger than Charlton’s 8 in 9.

Charlton have been difficult to beat in some matches, with four draws already, but their away record is modest and they have only one away league win. Their recent scoring output has also been limited, with just one goal in each of their last two league games and two goalless draws among the last five.

The odds reflect Burnley as the stronger side, with a home win priced at 1.6. The market also suggests a relatively tight match, with the total goals line set at 2.5 and both over and under available at similar prices.

Our prediction

Our model’s tip is Burnley to win with a probability of 57%. This is a prediction, not a certainty, and the main risk is Burnley’s winless home record in the league so far, which leaves room for another draw if Charlton stay organised.