AS Roma vs Real Madrid: Prediction & Preview

Form guide

AS Roma and Real Madrid meet in Rome in the second round of the UEFA Champions League, with both sides taking different routes into this fixture. Roma are 17th in the 36-team table after one match, with one point from a 1-1 draw. Their recent league results have been steady rather than dominant: a 0-0 draw at Como, a 2-2 home draw with Inter Milan, a 2-0 win at Torino, a 1-1 draw at Fenerbahce in the Champions League, and a 2-1 home win over Atalanta.

Real Madrid are 14th after one round, already on three points thanks to a 1-0 home win over Villarreal CF. Their last five results show a stronger winning pattern overall: a 1-0 win against Villarreal, a 2-1 loss at Atletico Madrid, a 3-2 win at Elche CF, a 4-1 home win over Rayo Vallecano, and a 2-1 Champions League win over Inter Milan.

Head-to-head

The recent head-to-head record favours Real Madrid. In the last five meetings listed, Madrid won four times and drew once. The most recent match between these clubs ended 2-2 in a friendly in August 2019. Before that, Real Madrid beat Roma 2-0 at home in the Champions League in November 2018, 3-0 at home in September 2018, 2-1 in the International Champions Cup in August 2018, and 2-0 at home in March 2016.

Key factors

• Roma are unbeaten in the competition so far, but their opening game ended level and their recent run contains several draws.
• Real Madrid arrive with three points from one match and have already scored twice in the group stage.
• The expected-goals figures in our model are close, with 1.78 for Roma and 1.49 for Real Madrid, which supports a competitive contest.
• Our model gives Both Teams To Score a 64% probability, matching the view that both attacks can find openings.
• The venue is the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, with Francois Letexier appointed as referee.

Our prediction

Our model’s tip is Both teams to score at 64%. This is a prediction, not a certainty, and the main risk is that Real Madrid’s stronger head-to-head record and away quality in Europe could be enough to keep Roma from scoring.