Cyprus U17 vs Japan U17: Prediction & Preview

Form guide

Cyprus U17 come into this friendly with a mixed run of results, shown by their last-five record of WDLLL. Their most recent matches were a 2-1 win over Lithuania U17 and a 0-0 draw against the same opponent in September, but those positive results came after three straight defeats in March against Belgium U17, Switzerland U17 and Serbia U17.

Japan U17 arrive in stronger shape, with a last-five sequence of WWWDW. They have scored in every one of those matches, including a 3-1 win over France U18 and a 4-0 victory over New Zealand U17 in September. Earlier in the year, they also produced three strong results at the AFC U17 Asian Cup, beating China U17 and Tajikistan U17 and drawing with Uzbekistan U17.

Key factors

• Japan U17 have been more consistent across their last five matches, both in results and in attacking output.
• Cyprus U17 have shown they can stay competitive, but their recent record includes three defeats in five games.
• Japan U17 have scored at least one goal in each of their last five fixtures, which supports their stronger expected goals figure of 1.63.
• Cyprus U17’s expected goals number is 1.21, suggesting they should still be able to create chances at home.
• The model sees goals at both ends as a realistic outcome, with both teams to score rated at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
• Japan U17 are given the highest win probability in the model at 47%, while Cyprus U17 are on 28% and the draw is 24%.

Our prediction

Our model’s tip is Both teams to score, with a probability of 56%. This is a prediction, not a certainty, and the main risk is that Japan U17’s recent defensive stability could limit Cyprus U17 to a lower-scoring performance than expected.